Allegations have been raised that the prediction market platform Polymarket paid social media creators to make fake betting videos that look realistic.
The Wall Street Journal reviewed 1,105 videos related to Polymarket posted on TikTok. Of these, 778 videos appeared to show users placing bets directly, but it was found that they used dummy sites designed to look like the real Polymarket website rather than the actual site.
The problem goes beyond mere staging. According to reports, some videos were structured to appear as though the creators had made a fortune by succeeding in high-stakes bets, but based on actual market results, it was highly likely that they had actually incurred losses. Additionally, some creators stated that they received guidelines from Polymarket to make their videos appear more convincing.
Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users bet on the outcomes of future events in politics, sports, economics, and social issues. While prediction markets boast the advantage of "probability prediction utilizing collective intelligence," they are simultaneously facing growing controversy in various countries regarding gambling regulations and consumer protection issues.
This allegation directly undermines trust, which is a core asset of prediction markets. Users believe they are watching the actual judgments and transactions of market participants, but if promotional videos showed fake bets and fake profits, questions inevitably arise regarding the platform's transparency.
In particular, short-form videos spread rapidly, and it is easy for "scenes of making easy money" to be consumed without context. Amidst ongoing debates over whether prediction markets are financial products, gambling, or new information markets, this report demonstrates that even the marketing methods of platforms can be subject to regulation.
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